The Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics LTD/GTE, Dele Oye, has slammed the Federal Government’s celebration of recent energy sector reforms, noting that while the figures brandished by the government was an illusion, the average Nigerian continues to suffer from expensive fuel, unreliable electricity, and rising production costs.
Oye who was responding to a 13-page report by the office of the Special Adviser to the President on Energy released titled “Nigeria’s Energy Sector Reforms: A Three-Year Review (2023–2026),” highlighting the progress in Nigeria’s energy sector under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, argued that the claims in the report fail to reflect the economic realities faced by households and the productive sector.
He pointed to what he described as a sharp deterioration in the financial position of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Limited), noting that its internal debt has risen by about 70 percent to approximately ₦30.3 trillion. According to him, this level of indebtedness raises serious concerns about efficiency, governance, and the sustainability of ongoing reforms in the energy value chain.
According to him, “Audited financial statements for NNPC Limited’s 2024 fiscal year, released in early 2026, revealed that intra-company debts among NNPC’s subsidiaries surged by 70.4% in a single year, from ₦17.78 trillion in 2023 to ₦30.3 trillion as of December 31, 2024. The biggest debtors are the state’s own refineries: the Port Harcourt Refining Company owed ₦4.22 trillion; the Kaduna Refining and Petrochemical Company owed ₦2.39 trillion; and the Warri Refining and Petrochemical Company owed ₦2.06 trillion. These are facilities that have absorbed billions of dollars in rehabilitation spending and remain, to this day, largely non-functional.
“NNPC’s trading arm, NNPC Trading SA, owed the parent company ₦19.15 trillion, more than double the ₦8.57 trillion recorded the previous year. As Professor Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics, observed: ‘A 70% jump in one year is a clear warning sign. It means inefficiencies are growing faster than reforms’.
“In late December 2025, President Tinubu approved the cancellation of $1.42 billion and ₦5.57 trillion in legacy debts owed by NNPC to the Federation Account. For a government that preaches fiscal discipline, writing off trillions of naira in state oil company debts while ordinary Nigerians face crippling energy costs is a profound contradiction. The World Bank has separately noted that NNPC remitted only ₦600 billion out of ₦1.1 trillion in post-subsidy revenues to the Federation Account in 2024, a shortfall of ₦500 billion.”
Oye also drew attention to the continued dependence of businesses on self-generated power, stating that Nigerian companies spent an estimated ₦1.83 trillion on diesel within just two months. He said this reflects the persistent failure of the power sector to provide reliable electricity for industrial and commercial use.
“The reality on the ground does not match the optimism being projected,” Oye said. “If businesses are spending trillions on diesel in such a short period while debt within the energy system continues to balloon, then the effectiveness of these reforms must be questioned.”
He added that rising operational costs are placing significant pressure on manufacturers, small businesses, and households, many of whom continue to rely heavily on generators due to unstable grid electricity supply.
The organisation called for a more transparent, data-driven assessment of energy sector performance, arguing that progress should be measured by real-world outcomes such as improved electricity supply, reduced reliance on diesel generation, and lower production costs for businesses.
He said, “The government’s report boasts of “$10 billion in Final Investment Decisions (FIDs)” and positions Nigeria as “Africa’s #1 destination for oil and gas investment,” citing a rise in Nigeria’s share of African upstream FIDs from 4% to 40% in two years.
“There is a kernel of truth here. Nigeria’s upstream investment environment has genuinely improved in recent years, and the 40% FID share figure is corroborated by the Africa Energy Chamber ExxonMobil has indeed been moving toward a Final Investment Decision on approximately $10 billion in deep-water projects in Nigeria
However, the report conflates FID announcements and intentions with actual capital deployed. A Final Investment Decision is a corporate commitment to proceed with a project, it is not a cheque cleared. In Nigeria’s energy sector, the gap between FID announcements and actual capital deployment has historically been enormous, driven by persistent governance failures that the government’s report does not acknowledge. A 2026 academic study on Nigeria’s petroleum supply chain governance, published in a peer-reviewed journal, found that “despite comprehensive legislative reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, significant governance gaps persist,” including “opacity in crude allocation, incomplete beneficial ownership disclosure, regulatory overlap, weak enforcement, and pervasive crude oil theft” [9]. The same study estimated crude oil theft losses at ₦8.41 trillion between 2021 and 2025, a figure the government’s own NUPRC has contested but not definitively disproved.
“Nigeria’s claim to be “Africa’s #1 investment destination” is aspirational. Sustained capital inflows will require more than a pipeline of announcements; they require the resolution of the governance deficits that the government’s report studiously ignores.”
Oye added, “The ‘Three-Year Review’ is a sophisticated document. It identifies real reform directions, acknowledges genuine challenges in passing, and presents a coherent strategic framework. But it is not an honest policy assessment. It is a political document designed to communicate a narrative of success to domestic and international audiences.
“The evidence presented in this article demonstrates that the report systematically overstates production achievements, presents a partial debt intervention as a transformative solution, ignores the structural fragility of the transmission network, conceals a ₦30.3 trillion crisis within the state oil company, and conflates permit issuance with gas utilisation progress.
“True energy sector reform cannot be measured by the volume of presidential directives or the elegance of bond structures. It must be measured by kilowatt-hours delivered, barrels produced without condensate inflation, and naira saved by reduced generator dependence. By these measures, Nigeria’s energy sector remains critically ill, and this report is a premature discharge summary.
“The Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics LTD/GTE calls on the government to subject future energy sector reports to independent third-party verification, to publish raw production and financial data, and to adopt citizen-centric metrics, hours of electricity supplied per capita, cost of power to small businesses, and percentage of the population with reliable access, as the primary benchmarks of reform success. Nigerians deserve not just a better energy sector. They deserve an honest account of where it stands.”
